The global meat industry is projected to expand through 2034, but growth will be uneven across regions and product categories. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 projects global meat production to rise 13% from its base period, adding 46 million tonnes in carcass-weight equivalent (Mt cwe) to reach 406 Mt cwe by 2034. Poultry is expected to account for most additional consumption, while regional demand patterns continue to shift.
Contents
- Global production outlook
- Where production growth will occur
- Poultry leads consumption growth
- Pork, beef, and sheep meat
- Per-capita consumption and income
- Historical production estimates
- Industry conditions and processing capacity
Global production outlook
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 places projected global meat production at 406 Mt cwe by 2034. That represents a 13% increase over the base period, or an additional 46 Mt cwe. The same outlook describes poultry as the dominant source of incremental production: poultry represents 62% of additional meat production, compared with 13% for pig meat.
These figures describe a forecast rather than a completed measurement. The 2034 total covers global production and uses carcass-weight equivalent, a measure that supports comparison across meat categories but is not the same as retail-ready weight. The outlook also identifies high input costs, rising labor costs, and stricter environmental and animal-health regulations as conditions facing the global meat market.
The production forecast is paired with a relatively modest consumption change at the individual level. Total meat consumption per person is projected to reach 29.3 kilograms per year in retail-weight equivalent (kg/year rwe) by 2034, only 3% higher than the base period. In other words, the global industry outlook combines a substantial increase in total output with a much smaller projected increase in average consumption per person.
Where production growth will occur
Asia is expected to be the main geographic center of expansion. The OECD-FAO Outlook projects that more than half of global meat-production growth, or 55%, will occur in Asia. The region’s increase is led by poultry, with poultry output projected to rise by 15 Mt.
Several countries are identified as important contributors to the global increase. China is projected to account for nearly 10% of the additional global meat production, while India and the United States are each projected to account for 8%. Viet Nam is projected to account for 7%. These percentages describe shares of the increase, not shares of total world production.
Latin America is projected to provide 20% of the world’s additional meat production, while Africa is projected to provide 13%. Africa’s meat production is projected to expand 22% by 2034. The outlook describes an African output mix that includes 22% sheep meat and 10% beef. Those percentages are reported as part of the outlook’s regional production profile and should not be read as a global product split.
The regional picture is therefore mixed. Asia supplies the largest share of projected growth, Latin America remains a major source of additional production, and Africa has one of the stronger projected growth rates. The forecast also points to different product emphases within each region rather than a single worldwide pattern.
Poultry leads consumption growth
Poultry is the clearest growth category in the OECD-FAO forecast. Global poultry consumption is projected to reach 173 Mt in retail-weight equivalent by 2034. Poultry is expected to account for 62% of the additional meat consumed globally, and it is projected to provide 45% of the protein consumed from all meat sources by 2034.
The outlook cites rapid poultry-consumption growth in the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, and the Philippines. In Asia, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Viet Nam are identified as countries driving poultry-consumption growth. These country references indicate where the outlook expects demand momentum; they do not provide a separate percentage or tonnage for each country.
Poultry’s projected position matters for food planning because it affects both production and the composition of meat consumption. The OECD-FAO figures show poultry leading the additional volume of meat consumed, while the protein share provides a separate view of its nutritional contribution within the meat category. Both measures point in the same direction, but they are not interchangeable: one concerns incremental consumption, and the other concerns protein supplied by meat.
The European Union is described as continuing to substitute poultry for beef, pig, and sheep meat. Europe overall is expected to see per-capita meat consumption stagnate. Together, these statements describe a change in mix within a relatively stable regional consumption level rather than broad-based per-person growth.
Pork, beef, and sheep meat
Pig meat remains a large global category in the outlook, but its direction differs from poultry. Global pig meat consumption is projected to reach 130 Mt cwe by 2034, while global pork consumption is projected to decline 4% relative to the base period. The source uses both a total-volume forecast and a percentage comparison, so the volume and the change should be read in their stated units and reference period.
Latin America is one exception to the broader decline described for global pork consumption. Per-capita pig meat consumption in the region is projected to increase by 1.3 kg/year rwe. This is a regional per-person forecast, not a statement about global pork consumption.
Global beef consumption is projected to reach 84 Mt cwe by 2034. At the individual level, global beef consumption is expected to remain stable at around 6 kg per capita per year rwe. The outlook identifies a projected increase of about 0.62 kg/year rwe in per-capita beef consumption in the Middle East and about 0.61 kg/year rwe in Asia.
The outlook also projects beef production at 84 Mt cwe by 2034. India is described as expanding export-oriented integrated meat-processing plants to raise beef capacity. This is a description of an industrial capacity trend, not a quantified forecast of India’s added capacity.
Sheep meat is projected to grow as well, although from a smaller global base. Global sheep production is anticipated to reach 19 Mt cwe by 2034, a projected increase of 15%. China is projected to contribute 17% of the additional sheep production. That contribution is a share of incremental production, not China’s share of total global sheep output.
| Category | OECD-FAO projected 2034 measure |
|---|---|
| Total meat production | 406 Mt cwe |
| Poultry consumption | 173 Mt rtc |
| Pig meat consumption | 130 Mt cwe |
| Beef consumption | 84 Mt cwe |
| Sheep production | 19 Mt cwe |
The table brings together the outlook’s headline totals, but the units differ. Poultry consumption is reported in retail-weight equivalent, while the other listed production or consumption totals are reported in carcass-weight equivalent.
Per-capita consumption and income
The OECD-FAO Outlook highlights a gap between population share and meat-consumption share in high-income countries. High-income countries contain 17% of the world’s population but account for 35% of global meat consumption. The comparison describes the distribution of consumption, not a claim that every high-income country has the same diet or production system.
Despite the projected rise in total production, the global per-capita measure is expected to move only modestly. Total meat consumption per capita is projected to be 29.3 kg/year rwe by 2034, which is 3% higher than in the base period. Regional averages vary behind that global figure: the outlook expects Europe’s per-capita meat consumption to stagnate, while selected markets show category-specific increases.
The Middle East and Asia are projected to add about 0.62 kg/year rwe and 0.61 kg/year rwe, respectively, to per-capita beef consumption. Latin America is projected to add 1.3 kg/year rwe in per-capita pig meat consumption. These figures show why global averages can conceal meaningful regional changes: one product may gain in a region even while the worldwide category declines or remains stable.
Poultry growth also reflects this regional variation. The United States, Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, and the Philippines are listed among markets with rapid poultry-consumption growth in the next decade. China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Viet Nam are identified as Asian drivers. The source does not assign one common growth rate to this group, so the countries are best understood as a set of markets highlighted for expected momentum.
Historical production estimates
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates provide a separate reference point for average annual production during 2015-2024. The USDA FAS Meat Summary estimates average annual global beef production at 58.21 million metric tons during that period. Average annual global chicken meat production is estimated at 97.33 million metric tons, and average annual global pork production at 109.96 million metric tons.
USDA FAS also projects production for 2024-2025. Its projection is 61.66 million metric tons for beef, 103.72 million metric tons for chicken meat, and 116.45 million metric tons for pork.
| USDA FAS measure | Beef | Chicken meat | Pork |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average annual production, 2015-2024 | 58.21 million metric tons | 97.33 million metric tons | 109.96 million metric tons |
| Projected production, 2024-2025 | 61.66 million metric tons | 103.72 million metric tons | 116.45 million metric tons |
The USDA FAS figures use million metric tons, while the OECD-FAO headline forecasts use Mt cwe or Mt rtc depending on the measure. Because the measurement bases and time frames differ, these figures should be used as separate reference series rather than combined into an unsupported trend calculation. The 2015-2024 numbers are estimates of an average annual period, and the 2024-2025 numbers are projections.
Industry conditions and processing capacity
The production outlook is shaped by more than demand. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 identifies high input costs, rising labor costs, and stricter environmental and animal-health regulations as pressures on the global meat market. These conditions apply to an industry expected to increase total output even as consumption growth per person remains limited.
Processing capacity is part of the regional story. India is described as expanding export-oriented integrated meat-processing plants to raise beef capacity. The statement indicates investment and structural development in processing, but the supplied source does not quantify the number of plants, the capacity added, or the resulting export volume.
For readers following cooking and food markets, the most useful distinction is between the scale of the global sector and the experience of individual categories. Total meat production is projected to reach 406 Mt cwe by 2034, yet poultry captures most additional consumption. Pork is projected at 130 Mt cwe while declining 4% relative to the base period, beef reaches 84 Mt cwe with stable global per-capita consumption near 6 kg/year rwe, and sheep production rises 15% to 19 Mt cwe. The source periods, geographies, and measurement units remain essential when comparing these figures.